Rob Oakeshott - who is he really?

The 3 Musketeers or Amigos? Oakeshott, Katter and Windsor. Photo: news.com

Tomorrow it will be three weeks since the Federal election in Australia. For much of the time since the election, Rob Oakeshott, Independent member for Lyne in NSW, has hogged the spotlight.

After criticising Rob Oakeshott for treating us all like schoolkids waiting for the verdict on a debate, I did some further research on the man who has been an interesting phenomenon in Australian politics.

The further research was inspired by Helen Pringle's article in Online Opinion on 7 September.

She argues that Rob Oakeshott is not necessarily the conservative he is made out to be. There was obviously some opinion in his electorate that he should have backed the National/Liberal Coalition, instead of Labor. However, as an experienced Independent, has has become used to the situation of being able to argue, decide and vote how he likes. And by backing Labor he has merely exercised this freedom once again.

The painfully long announcement. Photo: streetcorner.com

Oakeshott seems like a genuine guy, albeit a little eccentric in his own way, not in Bob Katter's way - that's an entirely different thing altogether. The further end of the spectrum would be Wilson Tuckey who bowed out of politics the other day by criticising Tony Crook, the National/Independent MP who beat him. Nothing like a graceful exit.

But back to Oakeshott. Pringle's article brings two salient points to light. The first is that people shouldn't be straight-jacketed into pigeon holes of right and left, conservative or progressive. Those terms may be trusty guidelines for describing someones position within a political party or across a political spectrum, but they are dangerous ways to categorise people and predict decisions.

If politicians think independently and use their brains more often, we can expect more examples of leaders who buck the trend of 'party lines'. This is particularly relevant when discussing the new Government, and that brings me to the second point.

Pringle concludes that this is a good thing for Australian politics. And while I didn't like waiting 17 days for the decision, and pessimistically doubt that the Government will be stable enough to last the three years, I agree that the lack of a mandate can be a good thing. Pringle argues, "Oakeshott, perhaps unlike the other musketeers, will make trouble for whichever side of politics he comes to support. And that kind of trouble is a very good thing in politics."

I couldn't agree more.

Who will be Australia's first elected female Prime Minister?

PM Julia Gillard Photo: Guardian

What a provocative headline!

But really, when you think about it, Julia Gillard cannot really lay claim to being Australia's first elected Prime Minister. On one hand, she gained an increased majority of votes in her electorate of Lalor in Victoria, and she was chosen by caucus to be the leader of the party. Therefore in that way, she is the 'elected' member who is Prime Minister. But on the other hand, a majority of Australians did not give their first vote to Gillard's party, so she was not really chosen by the majority of Australians.

Jenny Shipley Photo: largeherds.co.nz

As we saw yesterday, she was actually chosen by three independent members of Parliament, after Labor gained the support of the sole Green Party member Adam Bandt, member for Melbourne. The people of the seats of Denison (Tas), Lyne (NSW), and New England (NSW) are responsible for voting in the independent members, who have effectively held the country in political limbo over the last 17 days. The three men: Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor threw their support behind Labor to give them enough seats to govern. Another independent, Bob Katter, sided with the Liberal / National Coalition, giving them a total of 74 seats.

It is a genuine Government, albeit a minority one, and many are arguing that it could be in the best interests of Australia. Certainly the people of the bush are feeling more acknowledged as Rob Oakeshott bargained on their behalf for more investment from the Gillard Government.

Helen Clark Photo: Wikimedia Commons

But in the eyes of history, perhaps it will be another woman who will go down in the record books as the first elected female Prime Minister. New Zealand knows all about that sort of situation, having Jenny Shipley as Prime Minister after knifing Jim Bolger in December 1997, before losing the next election in 1999 to the Helen Clark Labour Government.

As for Rob Oakeshott, I'd have to agree with Mark Davis of The Age, who said he held Australia hostage for 20 minutes before announcing who he was going to side with. Honestly, it was like watching an over-zealous school teacher adjudicating a debate: "It was a points decision", "Both sides did very well," "But in the end it came down to stability..."  - that was the essence of the speech, but with those quotes repeated several times and a whole lot more thrown in between. Not content with 15 minutes of fame, Rob went for 15 days of fame and then was not satisfied until he had all the cameras flashing and tapes rolling, with all politicians not even warned of his decision, so that he could have both Tony and Julia on tenterhooks. Now he has been offered a cabinet position with the Gillard government. Let's hope he lives up to his own Parliamentary reform and keeps his questions and answers to the time limit!

Blog at whim

Photo: czhalgts.edublogs.org

Hi there

Yes it has been a long time, I know. But the novelty of arriving in a new country and telling everyone about it wears off after a short time.

Hence I am to post here as often as I can with some insightful musings about just about anything. It will be opinion, of course, and personal views, perhaps quite different from what might be expressed in articles and other reports I have published elsewhere.

The Australian Federal Election is the biggest thing in politics since 1940, and since the hung result two weeks ago, five Australian men have played the two major parties against each other as they held meetings, issued wish-lists, and pitched their price to the highest bidder. The problem is that each major party had 72 seats, 4 short of the majority needed to govern in their own right. The Coalition technically has 73, but one of the National Party MPs Tony Crook, is effectively an independent as he has threatened to be a cross-bencher on a range of issues.

Photo: theaustralianpost.com

In the last week, Julia Gillard has coaxed the sole Greens member, Adam Bandt, and the green-leaning Tasmanian Independent Andrew Wilkie, to her side, effectively establishing the first ever Greens/Labor Coalition. It means more than just the single Green MP in the lower house, as there are at least five Greens senators in the upper house likely to side with Labor.

So the tally stands at Labor/Green Coalition: 74, Liberal/National Coalition: 73, with 3 undecided Independents.

All three undecided independents represent rural electorates and are former National Party members, and they all have had extensive experience in politics. As former Treasurer Peter Costello pointed out this week, they have been waiting for their time in the sun for many years. Although they represent traditionally conservative electorates, they have all made clear that there is no certainty as to which party they will support. When the Federal Treasury confirmed this week that Abbott's costings for his proposed policies were undervalued to the order of up to $11 billion, it certainly didn't do much to persuade the independents. Abbott and his shadow treasurer Joe Hockey stand by the figures.

But what Costello points out is that whoever each of the independents decide to support (and they have said that they are not working as a bloc, so there could be 75-75 if two go for Liberal/Nationals and one joins the Labor/Greens), there is no security that the Government would be stable. Any member of any party, argues Costello, will effectively have the constant temptation of acting like an independent and cross the floor on any issue.

Rob Oakeshott, Bob Katter and Tony Windsor. Photo:Brisbane Times

The way these independents have performed in the past two weeks should give us an idea of how they are going to perform for potentially the next three years. And while many are unhappy and fed up with the two-party system in Australia, surely a respected party with over 70 seats has more of a mandate than one or two blokes from the bush.

The independents have spoken about the need for 'stability' and Rob Oakeshott, the idealist, has talked about a new 'paradigm' in politics. I think that 'paradigm' is a euphemism for instability and three more years in the sun as a pretty powerful man.

The Australian public took to the polls and on the whole, they showed that they were unhappy with Labor's bungles and perhaps the knifing of Kevin Rudd. But due to the resulting lack of a result, the most democratic option is to go back to the polls and see what the people want.

Will they return Gillard's government, satisfied that they have given it a rap of the knuckles, or will a few more swing across to the Liberals and Nationals to ensure a change of government?

The deal that will be struck with these three independents will also carry the guarantee that a new election would not be called for the next three years. They want to savour their influence as much as possible.

The Australian Electoral Commission has said it is ready for another election. If the possible 75-75 deadlock does not eventuate, and one of the major parties gains a majority, it will certainly be a poisoned chalice, and the Australian people won't have a say for three more years.

Let's have our say now, rather than later.

It's our house, let's decide who sits where. Photo: Wikimedia commons