Blog at whim

Photo: czhalgts.edublogs.org

Hi there

Yes it has been a long time, I know. But the novelty of arriving in a new country and telling everyone about it wears off after a short time.

Hence I am to post here as often as I can with some insightful musings about just about anything. It will be opinion, of course, and personal views, perhaps quite different from what might be expressed in articles and other reports I have published elsewhere.

The Australian Federal Election is the biggest thing in politics since 1940, and since the hung result two weeks ago, five Australian men have played the two major parties against each other as they held meetings, issued wish-lists, and pitched their price to the highest bidder. The problem is that each major party had 72 seats, 4 short of the majority needed to govern in their own right. The Coalition technically has 73, but one of the National Party MPs Tony Crook, is effectively an independent as he has threatened to be a cross-bencher on a range of issues.

Photo: theaustralianpost.com

In the last week, Julia Gillard has coaxed the sole Greens member, Adam Bandt, and the green-leaning Tasmanian Independent Andrew Wilkie, to her side, effectively establishing the first ever Greens/Labor Coalition. It means more than just the single Green MP in the lower house, as there are at least five Greens senators in the upper house likely to side with Labor.

So the tally stands at Labor/Green Coalition: 74, Liberal/National Coalition: 73, with 3 undecided Independents.

All three undecided independents represent rural electorates and are former National Party members, and they all have had extensive experience in politics. As former Treasurer Peter Costello pointed out this week, they have been waiting for their time in the sun for many years. Although they represent traditionally conservative electorates, they have all made clear that there is no certainty as to which party they will support. When the Federal Treasury confirmed this week that Abbott's costings for his proposed policies were undervalued to the order of up to $11 billion, it certainly didn't do much to persuade the independents. Abbott and his shadow treasurer Joe Hockey stand by the figures.

But what Costello points out is that whoever each of the independents decide to support (and they have said that they are not working as a bloc, so there could be 75-75 if two go for Liberal/Nationals and one joins the Labor/Greens), there is no security that the Government would be stable. Any member of any party, argues Costello, will effectively have the constant temptation of acting like an independent and cross the floor on any issue.

Rob Oakeshott, Bob Katter and Tony Windsor. Photo:Brisbane Times

The way these independents have performed in the past two weeks should give us an idea of how they are going to perform for potentially the next three years. And while many are unhappy and fed up with the two-party system in Australia, surely a respected party with over 70 seats has more of a mandate than one or two blokes from the bush.

The independents have spoken about the need for 'stability' and Rob Oakeshott, the idealist, has talked about a new 'paradigm' in politics. I think that 'paradigm' is a euphemism for instability and three more years in the sun as a pretty powerful man.

The Australian public took to the polls and on the whole, they showed that they were unhappy with Labor's bungles and perhaps the knifing of Kevin Rudd. But due to the resulting lack of a result, the most democratic option is to go back to the polls and see what the people want.

Will they return Gillard's government, satisfied that they have given it a rap of the knuckles, or will a few more swing across to the Liberals and Nationals to ensure a change of government?

The deal that will be struck with these three independents will also carry the guarantee that a new election would not be called for the next three years. They want to savour their influence as much as possible.

The Australian Electoral Commission has said it is ready for another election. If the possible 75-75 deadlock does not eventuate, and one of the major parties gains a majority, it will certainly be a poisoned chalice, and the Australian people won't have a say for three more years.

Let's have our say now, rather than later.

It's our house, let's decide who sits where. Photo: Wikimedia commons